We can't trust chameleon Dave

There are some real muppets at work in the national press at the moment.  Some journos are actually praising David Cameron for promising us an in/out referendum on Britain's membership of the European Union.  The word gullible appears euphemistic.

First, the PM's promise is conditional upon the Conservatives winning a majority at the next general election, which does not look likely at the moment.  People who follow me on Western Spring will know that I currently expect Ed Miliband to be our next prime minister.

Second, David Cameron is not a man we can trust.  His style of leadership is based upon utter contempt for people in his party who dare to dispute him.  He has previously made insulting remarks about two other political parties - UKIP and the British National Party - and yet has never had the courtesy to debate with representatives of either party.  If he is too busy to do so, then fair enough, but surely he could appoint one of his lieutenants to represent his party in such a debate.

Third, even if David Cameron were to lead a majority government after the next general election, and even if he honoured his pledge on a referendum, there are many tricks he could use to impact on the outcome.  He could renegotiate our terms of membership, winning a few concessions which could easily be lost again later on, and then urge us to vote to remain in the EU on the grounds that there is nothing to worry about.

He could spend millions or even billions of pounds on campaigning for a vote to remain in the EU.  Tony Blair gave both Scotland and Wales a referendum on home rule, and spent our money freely on pushing for a yes vote.  He did this in spite of the fact that a yes vote in Scotland was almost a foregone conclusion.

David Cameron could also rig the rules to ensure that it is highly unlikely that the result of a referendum is acted upon.  A Labour government in the 1970s allowed a referendum on home rule for Scotland which resulted in a modest majority in favour, but the government did not act upon it because of a rule on the number of people taking part in the vote.

He could even have the wording of the referendum rigged to ensure that the outcome would be irrelevent whatever people voted for. For example he could invite people to vote on whether or not Britain should leave the EU at some point in the next twenty years.  A yes vote would then allow him to delay taking Britain out of the EU for up to twenty years.  It is of course highly unlikely that David Cameron would remain as prime minister for another twenty years.

Ed Miliband is not promising a referendum, but on this point at least he is surely being honest.